Models, Modeling

A primary NCAR activity is creating models that enhance human understanding of the atmosphere, the Earth system, and the Sun. Our efforts help scientists worldwide to better understand—and continually refine their knowledge of—how the Earth’s systems work. Other interested parties, such as national and regional leaders, also use this information to make decisions on scales ranging from local to international. Relying on complex mathematical descriptions of real-world phenomena, scientists can compare Earth system model results against real-world observations to more effectively take appropriate action, whether scientific or policy related.

Highlighted Topics

Community & Operational Models

• Community Models

  NCAR offers a variety of community models, which are created collaboratively by our staff and others in the science community. Among the most widely used are the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), a global model of Earth’s climate system, including atmosphere, oceans, land, and more; the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF); and the Whole Atmosphere Community Model (WACCM), whose range is from the earth’s surface to the heights of the ionosphere.

• Operational Models

  Some of the research models developed by NCAR scientists and engineers become useful tools for the operational forecasting community. NCAR's Joint Numerical Testbed has taken the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and is developing it to meet the specific needs of forecasters and meteorologists.

Models by Topic

• Atmospheric Chemistry & Transport models

  Trace gases like methane and minute particles in the atmosphere, such as dust and soot, undergo extremely complex physical and chemical processes and interactions. Chemical modeling is vital for understanding these processes and their effects on climate, air pollution, and other atmospheric issues.

• Biogeoscience Models

  Biological processes significantly impact global and local carbon, trace gas, water, and energy cycles. It is critical to incorporate relevant aspects of these processes in our geophysical and atmospheric research. NCAR provides researchers with a number of biogeoscience models that can be used to better understand regional or global weather and climate phenomena.

• Climate models

  NCAR climate models provide state-of-the-art simulations of the Earth’s past, present and future climate.

• Combined & Nested Models

  Nested models offer a way to integrate both global and regional models. Like a virtual magnifying glass, the nested grid of a model lets users simulate weather processes in specific regions at a scale that would be too computationally intensive if applied to the model's entire domain.

• Defense & National Security Models

  In some cases, NCAR’s research applications have evolved into solutions that are used by private and public entities – including government agencies. In the area of defense and national security, NCAR provides, among other resources, weather nowcasting capabilities, and models that help predict the path of airborne contaminants.

• Meteorology & Weather Prediction Models

  NCAR’s numerical forecast models are used worldwide to help scientists predict movement and evolution of weather features, for both research into the basic processes of the atmosphere and forecasting at various scales.

• Ocean Models

  Changes in the world’s oceans affect global weather and climate, over both the short and long term. Models provide insights into ocean processes such as heat transfer, circulation patterns, and the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

• Terrestrial Models

  Predicting changes in the water cycle, energy budgets, and the exchange of gases such as nitrogen and carbon dioxide between the land and the atmosphere is critical for analysis of global environmental change. NCAR’s terrestrial models, which simulate atmosphere-hydrophere-biosphere-cryosphere interactions, aid this understanding.

• Upper Atmosphere & Solar models

  Solar flares and sunspots can impact life on Earth, dragging satellites out of their proper orbits, disrupting communications, and potentially bringing down power systems. To better understand and forecast solar phenomena, NCAR scientists have created models that help predict upper atmosphere and solar activity.